Meloni's dilemma: join Von der Leyen's centrist coalition or pact with Le Pen?
The Commission's president begins to seek support for her second term in office from the rest of the political forces.
11 June, 2024 02:29Once the waters have begun to calm after the frenzy of Election Day, the big underlying trends of the European elections have emerged. The hurricane of the ultras has been as strong as predicted by the polls, to the point of practically sweeping away the governments of Emmanuel Macron in France or Olaf Scholz in Germany. The radical right and the far right account for more than 20% of the 720 seats at stake in Strasbourg.
The surprise was the high degree of resistance of the grand coalition of Popular, Socialists and Liberals, which guaranteed the stability of the EU during the last legislature. The three big traditional political families have managed to retain an absolute majority in the European Parliament, with 400 seats. "There is still a majority in favour of a strong Europe in the centre of the political spectrum. In other words, the centre has held out," Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday at an event in Berlin.
The result clears the way for the European Parliament to win an absolute majority of 400 seats.
The result clears the way for the German woman to repeat a second term as head of the European Commission, as the European People's Party (EPP), in which she is a member, was the clear winner of the elections with 186 seats. Von der Leyen has offered the Socialists and Liberals to re-establish the 'grand coalition'. "Together we will form a stronghold against the extremes of the left and right," he argues. The two groups say they are willing to negotiate in exchange for programmatic concessions.
However, the support of Socialists and Liberals could be insufficient to guarantee the absolute majority (361 votes) that Von der Leyen needs to be confirmed by the European Parliament. The Parliament's most senior MEPs explain that she would need at least 420-425 votes, in order to have a sufficient safety net to cover possible defections. In Strasbourg there is no group discipline and some delegations (such as the French Socialists and Socialists) have already announced that they will not support the German. Others could drop out, taking advantage of the fact that the vote is by secret ballot. In 2019, the president was ratified by a slim margin of nine votes.
This is where the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whom Von der Leyen has courted throughout the campaign, comes into play. Not only to secure the vote of a large country in the European Council, but above all to expand her safety net in the European Parliament. Brothers for Italy has won a clear victory with 28.8% of the vote and a total of 24 seats. A result that Meloni herself has described as "resounding" and "very important politically", especially as it contrasts with the defeats of Macron, Scholz and Sánchez.
Ursula von der Leyen, during her Monday press conference in Berlin
Will he be back in Berlin?
Will Meloni back a second term for Von der Leyen? "It is too early to give an answer. We are still collecting the data and then we have to understand what the possible majorities are," the Italian prime minister replied on Monday in a radio interview. In her opinion, the message coming out of 9-J is that "Europe must look much more to the centre-right" and that the role of the left has to be "less important". "The second fact is that Italy will play a fundamental role", he said.
The Italian prime minister faces the dilemma of whether to join the centrist, pro-European majority embodied by Von Der Leyen. Or whether she will opt for a pact with Marine Le Pen to create a far-right supergroup, which would be the second largest in the European Parliament and would have the capacity to block the functioning of the EU. "The route that Marine Le Pen is taking is a very interesting route," Meloni said in her interview when asked about the results in France.
Meloni said.
The leader of the National Rally has swept the European elections in France, with 31.4% of the vote and 30 seats, more than double that of Macron's party. After the first exit polls were released, the French president called legislative elections for 30 June and 7 July in a bid to regain the initiative. "Meloni could give the French president a chance to win back the initiative," he said.
"Meloni could give outside support to the Von der Leyen majority because the German has given assurances that she will undertake policies more favourable to conservatives, particularly in the field of migration. In return, Meloni will want a more relaxed green policy, with longer transition periods. Economic-industrial portfolios are always the most coveted in Rome, so I think she will ask for one of these portfolios for her commissioner," Arturo Varvelli, head of the Rome office of the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, told EL ESPAÑOL.
"I don't see the usefulness of a far-right supergroup for Meloni. For Le Pen I do, because she wants visibility ahead of the 2017 presidential elections in France and respectability. On the other hand, Meloni would lose the respectability she has achieved in Brussels. Besides, these are two strong women, so who would be the leader of the group," says a senior European official.
Marine Le Pen, surrounded by journalists on her arrival this Monday at the National Rally headquarters in Paris
Since coming to power, Meloni has behaved in Brussels as a pragmatic leader. She joined the consensus on key reforms such as the Migration and Asylum Pact, new fiscal rules or sanctions against Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine, distancing herself from other ultra-right governments such as those of Hungary or Poland. "She is clearly pro-European," says von der Leyen. At the same time, the Italian prime minister remains true to her alliances with Vox and other Europhobic forces, as she demonstrated at the conclave of far-right parties organised in Madrid on 19 May.
Now the 9-J results have turned Meloni into kingmaker and force him to choose. Either Von der Leyen or Le Pen. The two are not compatible. The president of the Commission has flatly excluded any kind of collaboration with the National Rally, which she places in the group of "Putin's friends who want to destroy Europe". For her part, Le Pen has made it a priority to put an end to the "toxic mandate" of Von der Leyen, whom she accuses of "leading a policy that is disastrous for the peoples of Europe". Le Pen has made it a priority to put an end to the "toxic mandate" of Von der Leyen, whom she accuses of "leading a policy that is disastrous for the peoples of Europe".
